There were two private-equity backed IPOs this week and both missed the mark.
NIQ Global Intelligence (NIQ US) gave the 2025 IPO market its fifth cash raise north of $1 billion. The company that describes itself as a leading global consumer intelligence company priced a full-size offering of 50.0mm shares at $21.00 and opened at $20.25 for a loss of 3.6%. The selling in the Advent-backed company was relentless in its opening session as the stock closed at $19.01 for a loss of 9.5% at the end of its first session. The stock traded slightly higher in its second and third sessions and closed the week at $19.65 for a loss 6.4% at week’s close.
Fundamentally, the company continues to invest in itself and through M&A to maintain its premier position. Investors can, at times, look at companies who grow through acquisition through a different, less-attractive lens. Furthermore, NIQ showed 1H 2025 financial growth at a slower pace than in 2024 which “could” have been another cause for concern.
Early on in the roadshow, the company was reportedly in demand as our sources stated that the deal was considered multiple-times oversubscribed. It had enough strength where the underwriters and company believed that the IPO could be priced $1.00 above the low-end of the range. We find it peculiar that the underwriter and company provided an initial wide four dollar range ($20-$24) and still found a way to not meet the market where it truly was.
Platinum Equity Backed McGraw Debuts Flat
The company that describes itself as a leading global provider of information solutions for education across K-12 to higher education, and through professional learning, McGraw Hill (MH US) priced a full-size offering of 24.4mm shares at $17.00 and saw a flat opening print. The $17 pricing was a $2 discount to the wide $19-$22 range.
The stock traded within a fairly narrow range hitting a low of $16.25 and a high of $17.24 before closing the session back where it started, $17.00. McGraw closed the week at $16.81. McGraw Hill ultimately came at a slight discount to UK education service provider Pearson (PSO US) but clearly the discount was not enough. It is our opinion that debt level concerns and revenue growth were big enough of question marks for IPO investors to ultimately elect to “pass” on this deal.
Another Insurance IPO Winner
Another insurance IPO was well-received by Wall Street.
Accelerant Holdings (ARX US) priced 34.46mm shares (upsized from 28.95mm) at $21.00($1 Above the $18-$20 range) and opened at $28.50 for a gain of 35.7% at first trade. The stock retreated to as low at $25.94 in the first 45-minutes of trading before buyers stepped in and stabilized the price. The stock closed its opening session at $26.50 for a 26.2% return and traded as high during Friday’s session as $31.18 for a top tick of 48.5% above issue.
The company was able to capitalize during the roadshow by explaining how their business deals with both sides of the insurance marketplace. It also helped that the company’s exchange written premiums were on an uptick. Exchange written premiums were $3.1b in 2024 and the company is projecting premiums of $2.0b-$2.1b in the 1H 2025 alone. Adjusted Ebitda was $113m in 2024 and the company is projecting $100m-$105m in 1H 2025.
We see this company having potential staying power in the short term. There have been several insurance related IPOs that have traded higher for longer than many short term investors would have anticipated — one that comes to mind is Palomar Holdings Inc (PLMR US) . That IPO came to market in April 2019 and priced 5.6mm shares at $15.00. and opened at $18.50 for a gain of 23.3% at first trade. In the first 18 months as a public company, Palomar traded north of $120.00 for strong gains.
MedTech Disappointment
High-growth and strong margins were not good enough to make a splash in the IPO of Carlsmed (CARL US).
The company that describes itself as a commercial-stage medical technology company pioneering AI-enabled personalized spine surgery solutions with a mission to improve outcomes and decrease the cost of healthcare for spine surgery and beyond price a full size deal of 6.7mm share at $15.00. The deal opened flat and traded as low as $14.02 before rebounding for a final print of $14.50. CarlsMed also closed the week at $14.50 on lower volume in its second and third sessions’ on Thursday and Friday.
Based on the financials and the history of the sector, we believed this IPO would be a fairly “easy sell”. We also thought shares could be potentially difficult to obtain given the $31 million in anchor orders on the cover of the prospectus. We were unfortunately wrong.
Looking Ahead
This coming week will be headlined by the second software IPO of the year — Figma (FIG US)
The company that describes itself as a collaborative web-based design and prototyping platform that enables teams to create, share, and iterate on user interface designs in real time is offering 36.9mm shares at $25.00-$28.00 equating to a market cap of $12.2bn-$13.65b and is scheduled to debut on July 31st.
Ambiq Micro —a company that describes itself as a pioneer and leading provider of ultra-low power semiconductor solutions designed to address the significant power consumption challenges of general purpose and AI compute – especially at the edge is scheduled for a July 30th debut. They are offering 3.4mm shares at $22.00-$25.00 equating to a market cap of $375m-$426m.
The med-tech sector will also be looking to redeem itself after CarlsMed’s disappointment. Shoulder Innovations Inc (SI) will be offering 5.0mm shares at $19-$21 and to debut on July 31st.